A Strength Model of Probability Judgments for Tournaments
نویسنده
چکیده
to P(A ú B) and to P(B ú C), and a low value to P(A Fans of the National Basketball Association (NBA) ú C). Neither standard probability theory nor support assigned probability judgments to the outcomes of uptheory constrains the relationship among these three coming NBA games, and rated the strength of each estimates. Nevertheless, it is suggested that in many team involved. The probability judgments obtained situations people’s judgments about the outcomes of a from these ‘‘expert’’ subjects exhibited high intersubtournament may satisfy the following simple model. ject agreement and also corresponded closely to the Assume that for each team in the tournament, the eventual game outcomes. A simple model that associjudge has a value s(A), interpreted as the strength of ates a single strength value with each team accurately team A. The judged probability that team A will beat accounted for the probability judgments and their reteam B, then, is given by the following strength model: lationship to the ratings of team strength. The results show that, in this domain at least, probability judgments can be derived from direct assessments of P(A ú B) Å s(A) s(A) / s(B) (1) strength which make no reference to chance or uncertainty. q 1996 Academic Press, Inc.
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